Review - Thursday
The market opened within yesterday's range and below its high volume area. It struggled to advance much past the initial resistance zone and we eventually got a break to the downside, one time-framing lower down to the current range value area low. NYSE internals were not overly weak to support a trend into the close and there was a late bounce back towards the range vpoc.
Volume was below average at about 1.2m and NYSE total shares traded at 3.3bn.
In the past two days we've seen an attempt to break from the range yesterday leave a poor high, buying dry up and short term sellers drive to retest the other side of value of the range today. As long as the market can hold today's low then I would expect buyers to repair the poor high at 2169.75 and at least trade the globex all time high at 2170.25 during the day session.
The bull/bear zone for overnight is now 51.25-53.50, next support 47.75-49.00 and next resistance 60.50-62.50
Review - Wednesday
Volume and momentum was low but the market moved away from the balance area of the past days, leaving a poor high at 2169.75 and key volume support between 66.75-68.75 (VPOC 67.25).
Overnight, expectation is for the poor high to get broken and attempt higher. However, a break and hold below 66.75 could see some attempt back towards the range VPOC at 60.50.
Review & Plan - Wednesday
Review
Below shows the key references tested/rejected during the day session yesterday, split by 30 min profile letters B to P.
Overnight
In line with the longer time frame, the market has extended higher with the range currently 2155.25-2167.25, just short of the 2168.00 globex all-time high.
Plan
If we open inside yesterday's range, we could test the 55.25-56.50 support zone, which if buyers are strong a) probably shouldn't get hit & b) if it doesI'd expect to see responsive buyers of it and for that area to hold.
If we open outside of yesterday's range, we may see an attempt to fill the gap and the 60-61.50 support zone would be where I'd expect buyers to step in.
Above the 2168 globex high there is the yearly vwap 2nd stan.dev. band at 2176.75 currently, where the market paused when making the recent high.
Breaking and holding below the 51.25-52.25 bull/bear zone puts a short term liquidation move on the cards.
Review & Plan - Tuesday
Review
The day finished neutral/bullish forming a P shaped profile, a buying tail and a poor high. Volume was only 1.1m for the full session which gives less confidence to the move attempt higher.
I've just begun recording which of the key levels get tested and rejected intra-day. Yesterday's day session below.
RZ/SZ are resistance and support zones the day
Overnight
The market is balancing in the lower value area of the current range. The range is currently 2151.25-2160.75 on low volume versus settlement at 2160.00
Plan
The buying tail in yesterday's day session would be expected to hold if longs are want to hold yesterday's move. The test lower overnight has my bull/bear zone for today at 2151.25-52.25, but ideally for longs, the 55.50 holds for an attempt to break yesterday's poor high and target the highs. Inititial resistance is at 60.00-61.50.
If the first move is higher and there's failure to break 60, we could test the overnight low and into lower zones. Volume and momentum assesment in realtime is needed.
Review & Plan - Monday
Review
Friday left a strong high after 3 point selling tail and rejection of the prior day high. Value was left overlapping lower to Thursday.
Plan
We potentially have at intermediate term high in place to give the market a chance to auction back towards the breakout point after such an extended move. The longer term trend remains bullish for now though there should be plenty of opportunities on the short side as well if we're going to see a short term correction.
If the market builds price above Friday's value area then buyers can regain control of this market and go for the 2168.00 globex highwhich hasn't been hit during the day session yet, which odds favour happening at some point.
The zones for today are below.
2155.00-56.25 is my short term bull bear for today.
Review & Plan - Thursday
Review
Yesterday's price action was dominated by the sharp sell-off in crude but buyers still managed to support the break higher this week and continued to build value around the VPOC of the week so far, currently 2046.00
Overnight
Early in the European session buyers pushed through the heavily defended 2148 level from yesterday. This has seen a further squeeze on shorts and a move up to 2168.00 from a 2142.75 low.
Weekly profiles below show the current week's attempt at a small balance area around 2146.00
The daily chart below shows the move from the yearly vwap to the 2nd standard deviation band, which is steadily rising. We may start to see some digestion of recent price rises in the short term having hit this band, and a correction back to retest the breakout point at 2119.50 would be a good test of longer time frame buyers initially. There are, however, no signs of buyers giving up yet.
Plan
The overnight rally has left an import area of support in the 2155.75-57.75 zone. If this holds and sees strong buying after the open, then I would expect at least a retest of the overnight high.
Failure to hold above 2155.75 puts the chances of a retest of the expected opening gap zone (2150.50-52.25) and breakout area (2146.00-47.75).
Holding below 2146 and particularly the overnight low would put sellers back in short term control and target the lower zones. However, unless there is major volume and momentum, I would still look for responsive buyers activity, in line with the longer time frame uptrend.
Review & Plan - Wednesday
Review
Value shifted higher once again in yesterday's day session. The afternoon attempt to break through the morning high saw a 1 tick failure. There remains an open gap to Monday's high and a poor high left on yesterday's profile.
2147.00 is the current VPOC for this week, and will be an important level for today.
The day session below on the 1 min chart includes the VWAP and 1st,2nd,3rd standard deviation bands with the day's volume profile and market internals, together with the initial support zone at 2136.75-38.25.
Cumulative delta was heavily sold off after the morning high at 2149, showing big negative divergence.
Overnight
The range has so far been 2142.00-52.25 versus settlement at 2145.75
The main overnight news was the uncovered German 10 yr bund auction at -0.05% (first time negative yield auction).
Plan
No change in zones for today, just adding 2141.25-43.25 as initial support. Bias remains bullish up to inital resistance at 2156.75-58.25
Review & Plan - Tuesday
Review
New all time highs in the underlying cash market were made yesterday and the rally is showing little sign of abating yet with a global chase for yield and central banks supporting prices. Overall volume and the range was lower than it had been as the market moved into new territory.
When we do eventually see a break lower, there are multiple areas to repair in the profiles below as the market trended up forcing shorts out.
The daily chart below shows some upside target levels based on the extremes Pre and Post Brexit. Also, the 2nd standard deviation from the yearly VWAP is currently around 2164. If the rally is to continue we need to watch momentum and volume carefully.
Overnight
The overnight low tested the pullback low from yesterday and quickly found buyers, and continued higher with the European markets to fresh highs. The range is currently 2128.50-2141.75, with the majority of volume at the 39.50-41.00 area.
Plan
Retaining a bullish bias with the market holding above yesterday's VPOC at 2133.75. Below there we may see some liquidation from short term traders but will be watching for buyers to step in at the support areas down to the 2117.75-2119.75 bull/bear zone (pre-Brexit globex all time high area). Below there we may see a test of the 2104.75 pre-Brexit day session high.
On the upside there is no prior resistance, just measured moves/fib levels etc. as potential targets.
Fed members, Tarullo and Bullard, are due to speak at 08.15 and 08.35 cst
Zones for today:
Review & Plan - Monday
Review
Friday's trend day pushed the futures to new highs in the day session, leaving the market imbalanced to the upside. Volume was a fairly healthy 1.9m contracts.
The daily chart below shows how the market bounced off of the yearly VWAP after Brexit and is currently heading back towards the 2nd standard deviation band at 2162.25
The weekly volume profiles below show how the market has accepted above the area of high volume on the composite profile and has found support on pullbacks into it so far.
Overnight
The market continued higher with a strong rally in Japan and China, aided by more central bank money. The range is currently 2120.00-2133.00 on volume of approx. 240k. There is no major economic data due.
Plan
The trend on all time frames is higher and until there is a notable break and acceptance under recent support, I'll be focusing on a long bias at support areas or dynamic intra-day levels of support.
Review & Plan - Wednesday
Review - Day Session
The market sold off from an overnight high at 2104.75 to open at 2085.25, and continued to break lower down to 2072.50. The session filled in an area of thin volume from 06/30 and left a poor low and a gap above to last Friday's low.
The day session chart below also has the composite profile with the last 5 years back-dated volume. We're currently holding above the high volume area which is a positive for bulls. Inside the yellow box highlighted trade has historically been choppy, with exception to the extreme moves after Brexit. Holding below the 2029 area, which closes one of the gaps, would put sellers back in control to target the poor low made at 1981.50 (which was also at the yearly VWAP).
Overnight
Weakness has dominated despite an early attempt to rally higher after the European open. The banking sector is at 5 year lows in Europe today with record lows from Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse and risk of default seen in Italy's Banca Monte dei Pashi.
The range is 2066.75-85.75 currently