Tuesday Prep

The RTH profile above shows the open gap left from the breakout higher at the start of last week. There also hasn't yet been a retest of the 2888.75 January high (back-adjusted).

Overnight, following the labor day holiday, the price action has been pushing lower from a high of 2912.00 to a low of 2891.75 (Friday's low) versus Friday settlement at 2902.00.

I'm using a short term bull/bear zone as 2895.50-97.50 (Thursday RTH low at 95.50 & Friday's open at 97.50). The longer time frame bias remains bullish and short term I'm watching to see how the market reacts at the bull/bear zone. Holding below there could be setting up for a gap fill attempt lower into the 2874.75-77.50 zone. Above the bull/bear, there'll be pressure on the overnight shorts and we could make a move back to settlement and potentially higher into the 2911-13 zone. Above there I would expect more buyers to come into the market and keep momentum going higher. 

Thursday Prep

Pre-market, the primary expectation was for continuation of the dominant trend with the potential to consolidate and/or shake out weak longs before rallying. 

Opening inside the prior range, there was little downside selling pressure, with a move into the overnight support zone. The 5 min footprint chart below shows a failed attempt lower as selling dried up once the prior day's POC (2899.50) had been hit. Once back above the opening range, shorts were squeezed into the overnight high and size stepped in above there to lead the trend higher. 

A P-shaped profile was left on the day, with 3 areas of single prints left on the rally, which is often a sign of short closing where buying is aggressive. These are areas which have a high chance of being revisited once the short rally consolidates. 

The afternoon pullback low was at 2911.25 - holding above or below that level today could be the difference between trend continuation or short term consolidation. Clearly if we do see a break lower, below yesterday's low, then a retest of the breakout of the January ATH at 2888.75 is a probability. However, primary expectations are still bullish/neutral bullish, depending on where the market opens in relation to 2911.25.

Overnight so far the range is 2907.00-16.25 versus settlement at 2914.75, having sold off from the high early in the session.

Today's zones of interest are shown below on the split session profile chart:

Wednesday Prep

New all time highs in yesterday's overnight session didn't get hit during the RTH session, so we now have an RTH high at 2904.25 and Globex ATH at 2906.25. This continues to hold above the prior ATH from January at 2888.75 (back adjusted).

The monthly, weekly and daily bars are all trending higher, and as long as the market doesn't accept back below 2888.75 then the breakout remains valid. If we see a move down to yesterday's weak low, a push through could see buyers step in at the 2892-93.25 zone (Monday's RTH morning pullback low and mid). Monday's open and the prior ATH at 2888.75 could see a buy response but if that fails to hold, there remains a range gap in play from the end of last week to this, which would be the initial target down to the 2874.75-77.25 zone. 

Overnight so far the range is 2897.50-2905.00, holding for the most part above yesterday's VPOC/POC. Continuation of the dominant trend is the primary expectation, with potential to consolidate and attempt to shake out short term longs beforehand. 

Today's zones of interest are below. Overnight support zone: 2897.50-99.50, Overnight resistance zone 2903.25-05.25

Thursday Prep

Given the overnight move yesterday, we knew that the market had got pretty short ahead of the open. The first destination was an exact fill of the range gap followed by a reversal down to test last Friday's low (2708.75) which left a 1 tick failure. Most of the time and volume was spent below the prior day's low until an afternoon squeeze pushed up as high as the prior day's initial balance low forcing a lot of shorts to cover. 

Overnight so far has held the upper half of yesterday's RTH session. The range is currently 2720.25-33.25 on light volume. Rates have been firm with the 10yr back down to 2.98% from the recent high of 3.12%. 

Zones of interest for today are below. The market remains in a range short term. If the 2720-21.50 zone can hold today buyers could dominate and attempt a push to the top of this range again (into 2741-45.50 zone). If the 20-21.50 zone fails I'd look for a buying response at yesterday's VPOC on first test (13-15 zone), though if it runs through there I'd be looking for a run down to the 2700-03.25 zone.

Wednesday Prep

We got a failed attempt to break through the multi time frame expected resistance zone early yesterday. Underlying stock momentum was lacklustre (see NYSE TICK on pushes into resistance). Once the early break lower had taken place, there was another good R:R short opportunity on the retest of the overnight high. Volume has been very light for the past few sessions (sub 1m contracts). If there is a lack of strength and fuel on the way up (i.e. broad market strength and volume) then the chances increase of revisiting the weak structure below (single prints, gaps etc).

Overnight the sell-off has accelerated with a range so far of 2704.50-2726.25 versus settlement at 2726.00

Currently we're looking to open on a wide gap lower. Given the market has got very short overnight we could see some covering and attempt to fill the gap, though I see potential resistance in the 2716-18.50 zone initially. I've adjusted my zones slightly for today below. I would expect a buy response in the 2700.00-03.25 zone given last week's low at 2700.50, though if that fails first target is 2693.50 (composite HVN)

Monday Prep

As we can see on the daily chart above, ES has broken and is holding above the consolidation triangle pattern formed over the past few months and remains above last month's high at 2718.50. This continues to be the edge of the short term bull/bear zone for me. The next expected area of multi time frame selling is in the 2741.00-45.50 zone above. There is an RTH open range gap from the 3/16 low at 2752.75 to the 3/19 high at 2745.25.

There was a gap higher overnight on the open as trade tensions eased temporarily between the US and China. The range is currently 2724.25-36.25 versus settlement at 2713.00. The larger the gap, the less likely it is to fill on the day. If we see an early attempt to partially fill the gap and it fails to take out and hold below the overnight low, I'd expect to see buyers dominate and attempt higher. Acceptance below the overnight low could see a re-test of the micro bull/bear zone and potentially low depending on market state. Today's zones of interest are shown below:

Wednesday Prep

The overnight breakdown through the micro bull/bear put the short term bias as negative going into yesterday's open. We got a push down into the 2700.00-03.50 gap down with up to a 12 point rally from first test of that zone. Trade was very rotational for most of the session and volume picked up at 1.4m contracts.

Overnight has traded  2704.50-14.75 so far, within yesterday's RTH range and versus settlement at 2709.00. There are an increasing amount of potential resistance zones above given the previous day's price action and the 2700.00-03.50 zone will weaken the more times it gets tested and 2690.50-93.25 zone becomes next target below. If prices do push higher there could be a short squeeze to retest the 18.50-20 micro bull/bear if there's enough volume and momentum plus broad market participation.

Zones of interest for today are below:

Tuesday Prep

Opening in the 32-34 zone yesterday, the initial rally failed one tick above the overnight high. Volume was very low on the day at 924k and two distributions were left with the majority of time and volume spent lower, within the prior day's range. 

Overnight the market moved slightly lower, tagging the 18.50-20.50 micro bull/bear zone. The strong rally of the past week or so is running out of steam, but that doesn't necessarily signify a reversal. Holding back below 18.50 puts the market in a more neutral/negative state short term in my view and could see short term long liquidation and revisiting of the weak structure left on the way up. 

Today's zones of interest are below. Retail sales are due at 08:30 ET for how consumer spending went in April, consensus expecting a 0.3% gain m/m.

Monday Prep

The short term bullish bias continued on Friday with price balanced between the micro bull/bear zone and initial resistance for most of the session, with a brief attempt to break below which failed. Daily value was left overlapping higher leaving the gap and weak structure from previous days untested on the week.

Overnight so far we've seen another move higher, with the range currently 2727.25-41.00. The 2742.25-45.25 initial resistance zone represents a key reversal area from March as well as a composite low volume area. If we have a push into that zone and buyers fail to get through, I would expect a move back down into the 2718.50-20.50 micro bull/bear zone. Holding above 2545.25 puts the squeeze on shorts even more as another daily swing high gets taken out. However, I would expect a selling response at IR on first test...we'll see.

Zones of interest for today are below:

Friday Prep

Yesterday's weaker than expected CPI data kept a bid under the market and pushed through the initial resistance zone before the market open, leaving a gap above the prior day's RTH high. This zone acted as support once broken and was the launching point of another strong rally which took out the April high (2718.50).

With the 130 point low to high range of the month so far, shorts have continually been forced to cover, accentuating the moves higher. One thing that seemed odd yesterday was that despite the strong price rally, underlying stock momentum showed on the NYSE TICK was not particularly strong. Volume was fairly low too at just 1.1m contracts. If the rally is to continue the really major test above in my view is the 2742.25-45.25 zone which represents a key breakdown area from mid-March. Ahead of that the 2732.00-34.00 zone was also a pivotal area from March which could see sellers step in again.

Overnight so far the range is 2716.25-26.75 versus settlement at 2718.75. I'm using 2718.50-20.50 as a micro bull/bear zone on the day timeframe. Acceptance either side of that zone today could help establish the dominant side, though clearly all the short term trends remain bullish within a  very large range. My zones of interest for today are below: