ES Morning Prep
The charts above from left to right show a snapshot of long term to shorter term for ES:
Monthly - April range was 4830.00-5773.25 (943.25 point range!) So far in May we’ve failed to take out the prior high and are heading towards the April close of 5587. The April monthly candle left a 814 point lower ‘wick’, which is a huge outlier and I’d expect to see an attempt to retrace part of this - currently still holding above prior close and above the March low (5509.25)
Weekly - Prior week high 5724.75, low 5455.50 (5590 mid-point). Last week hit the 50 week sma and backed off after a strong thrust higher
Daily - Holding above the 50 day sma (though still trending down) and above the 20 day sma (turning up)
240 min - This chart also has the monthly volume profile with VPOC & value area high/low markers. So far holding above April value area, but pre-market is now holding under the value area low for May (5634 currently)
60 min - This chart has the weekly volume profile overlaid and so far the downtrend overnight is inside the prior week value area; the longer this remains the higher the chance of rotation lower to the other side of value.
Above left above the market & volume profiles for the overnight and cash sessions, above right is the cash session only.
The huge rally has not surprisingly paused and the overnight session has trended lower. In terms of expectations for today, the main scenarios i’m looking for are:
Open to take out overnight low and rally - looking to fade key reference points (vwap, VAH etc.) for continuation lower to test levels. If no rally above overnight low immediately then early push to auction lower prices - 5598-5600 key support zone - looking for more sellers if this fails. Looking for longs to hold if can push back above vwap and vah for today