Plan - Wednesday
Review
Finally we got a break from the range since mid July and downward momentum saw an expansion in range and volatility. Volume was up also at 1.9m contracts
2153.50 is a short term bull/bear levelcreated yesterday at the bottom of the single print spike lower. A poor low was left and although the longer term trend is bullish, prices will need to accept above the prior range VPOC at 60.75 to give more confidence to longs I think.
A break lower is healthy if this bull market is to continue and a re-test of the breakout area would not be surprising, revisiting the thinly traded areas below.
The open gap at 36.75-38.25 is the next downside target for shorts and given the longer term bullish trend, this could be defended by buyers still.
Overnight
Narrow range between 2145.25-53.00, below the short term bull/bear zone.
Plan
Looking for short opportunities on a failed test of the bull/bear zone to target the open gap. Above there, retest of range VPOC above likely.
Plan - Wednesday
Overnight
Quiet trade ahead of FOMC later holding above yesterday's breakdown point for the most part and back within the current range upper distribution.
Little changes in today's zones except that the 64.25-66.00 resistance is now bull/bear support given the inflection point we saw yesterday around 64.25. Pushing back down to yesterday's low will need caution at the 51.25-53.75 zone and assessment of the market state whether sellers are strong enough to break the 49 daily swing low and move to the lower range VPOC at 46.
Above 72.50 there is no hard resistance - the zones above represent the 127.2 and 161.8% extended retracement of the 72.50 high to 53.75 low yesterday, and are purely targets.
Plan - Tuesday
Overnight
Current Range: 2158.25-65.00
TPO Value: 2159.75-63.25POC: 2162.50
Volume Value: 2160.25-63.25 VPOC: 2161.00
Overlapping higher to prior day's value, poor high and low
Prior settlement: 2162.25
Daily Market State: Neutral
Weekly Market State: Bullish
Plan
Yesterday the market rejected the upper distribution HVN at 67 and attempted to trade across the range value area but failed leaving a poor low.
Scenarios:
1. We could see either a further attempt to the range value low at 53.50 and potentially lower.
2. Attempt higher and reject the 64.25 LVN then continue lower
3. Rotate between the 59.25-67 HVNs
4. Push through 67, hold and make new highs with a breakout or breakout failure.
Zones of interest below:
Plan - Monday
Overnight
Market is trading around upper volume distribution of last week's range - currently range is 2163.75-72.50, leaving another new high in Globex.
Plan
Monthly and weekly value trends are bullish, daily is bullish/balanced
Key support for today I view as 2162.00-64.50, which represents the value area high of the current range and the low volume area below the upper distribution around the 2167.00 HVN.
Below the 62-64.50 zone we could see rotation back down through the range value area again.
Plan - Friday
Overnight
The range is currently 2156.00-64.50 on light volume, versus settlement at 2158.00 yesterday.
No major eco news due today
Plan
The sell-off yesterday remains within a longer term bullish structure.
The double distribution yesterday is the first hurdle for buyers to push through, which is represented at the 2162.75-64.50 resistance zone. We could see strong resistance at 66.50-68 where a lot of volume traded but above there it could accelerate through the highs again.
Failure to break that initial resistance at 62.75-64.50 could see a re-test of the overnight low and bull/bear zone. The high volume node at 2146 would be the next natural target below there, but we may see buyers step in at the 47.75-49.00 zone. Below 46 then the 36.75-38.25 gap would be next target, but again buyers could step in at the 41.25-43.25 zone.
Plan - Thursday
Overnight
If you missed yesterday's review it's here.
Range so far: 2162.75-2170.25
After the European open the market popped just above yesterday's poor high and swiftly rejected any breakout. The move lower has stopped so far 1 tick above Monday's rth high and is still above the value area of the current range. Volume is light.
On the news front, the BoJ's Kuroda has said there is no need for 'helicopter' cash, and the
ECB held rates and asset purchases unchanged. Draghi's Q&A is on now. Here is today's economic calendar.
Plan
Bias still remains to the upside while prices hold above the current range value area with the longer time frame in an uptrend. Short term resistance is at 66.75-67.75.
Acceptance back within value could see a more neutral/rotational day and below 2151.25 we could see liquidation by longs, however, with the LTF bullish I would expect to see buying interest at the support levels below there.