ES review & plan
Yesterday's turnaround tested the prior day's POC and reversed quickly to drive higher and force shorts to cover. The gap from Friday's low was closed and the profile was left with several anomalies between 2113-2119.25 to revisit. Volume was low at 1.2m contracts and 3.1bn shares on NYSE.
A look at the volume profile shows the rally back from just below the 161.8% breakout back to the micro composite VPOC at 2124.25 (yesterday's high), after launching from support at the composite VPOC at 2101.75. It remains to be seen today if the market is going to accept back inside that value area (2019.75-29.75) or reject it and re-test the recent lows.
Overnight the range is currently 2115.25-2121.75 versus settlement at 2121.00. Last week's low at 2112.25 is a line in the sand for bull/bears. Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales are due, plus Kocherlakota is speaking on monetary policy.
ES review & plan
Yesterday's break lower away from the balance area formed over the past 2 weeks saw volumes pick up to 1.5m contracts and 3.3bn shares on NYSE, which is higher than recently though still not high. The all time high remains untested in the regular trading hours, which is a low odds scenario of staying that way. This is information to carry forward as the current pressure has been on the downside. There are single prints above to 2111.00, which shorts will want to defend or potentially see forcing action to cover.
The 2095.50-97.25 support zone from yesterday worked well and we may see trade between this and 2112.00 for today in the absence of market moving news. There is a composite high volume node at 2101.75 which may become a magnet to trade around. Overnight so far, the market has ranged between 2101.25-2107.75 versus settlement at 2105.00.
ES review & plan
The extremely low volume environment shows that activity is dominated by day time frame traders. Friday turned over just 765k contracts and 2.5bn shares traded on NYSE, going into the long weekend.
The breakout above the Feb 25th high at 2117.75 is faltering and acceptance back inside that level could see weak longs throw in the towel.
The range formed over the past couple of weeks has a prominent VPOC at 2124.25 which is an important pivot going into today. Overnight the range is 2115.25-2127.00 versus settlement at 2124.50 on Friday. The all time high has yet to be hit during regular trading hours, which is a high odds scenario.
ES review & plan
Value moved higher yesterday, though on the lowest volume of the year at just 792k contracts trading. The high when combined with the prior day is weak and the all time high still is likely to be tested in the RTH.
The range of the past week or so has been rotating around the 2124.25 micro composite VPOC. There is notable low volume around 2121.00 which is either going to be rejected on a re-test or start to fill in with volume or trade straight threw and push towards 2112.00.
Overnight the range is currently 2123.00-2131.00 versus settlement at 2128.00. Core CPI came in higher than expected and the Dollar has rallied hard, while bonds, commodities and indices push towards their lows. How price behaves around the 2120 level will be telling for the day's direction in my opinion.
ES review & plan
Despite the post Fed-minutes push towards the all-time globex high, value built overlapping lower on the day in another very low volume environment (1m contracts and 3bn shares on NYSE). There is a prominent POC/VPOC which could act as an important bull/bear pivot going into today.
After hours the globex session began with a push through the frequently tested 2120.00-22.75 zone which has acted as support, now resistance. The overnight range is 2115.00-2120.75 versus settlement at 2122.50. The May 15th VPOC at 2115.25 supported the overnight low and failure below there could see more weak longs bail, particularly under the 2111.50 support. Notable composite high volume nodes below are at 2100.00 and 2095.50, which could act as magnets if there is a break.
The weekly trend is still higher, though short term it's worth being cautious of weak hands being forced out for stronger hands to re-enter at better prices.
Jobless Claims at 7.30 ct, PMI Manufacturing at 8.45 ct, Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales at 9.00 ct
ES review & plan
New all time highs were made pre-market, but have yet to be reached during RTH (odds are good of this happening). Volume was again low at under 1m contracts and 3.3bn shares on NYSE. An area of balance has formed between 2122.75-2127.25 and balance trading rules are in force.
Overnight has been in a tight range so far, 2121.75-2126.75 versus settlement at 2124.50. The Fed minutes are released at 1pm CT.
Support/Resistance zones remain the same. The initial support at 2120.00-2122.75 has been tested several times over the past day which makes it more vulnerable to break if this continues. The initial resistance at 2132.75-34.00 has yet to be tested and a move there on a break from balance could see more follow through searching for liquidity.
ES review & plan
New all time highs on volume of 913k contracts and 2.9bn shares on NYSE, extremely low. The overnight high was initially the main resistance but once through the market extended higher building value above the prior day. The short term trend continues to move higher on very little volume.
Overnight there has been news from the ECB that bond buying will get stepped up over the summer, which pushed yields and the Euro lower and Indices and the Dollar higher.
The range is currently 2126.00-2134.00 versus settlement at the overnight low, 2126.00. The only upside measured move I'm looking for a test of is at 2156.00, the 161.8% retracement of the '07 high to '09 low. Housing Starts were much better than expected which has further boosted the dollar and seen yields rise. I'm in no rush to trade this at the moment and waiting for the 2120.00-22.75 zone to be tested for signs of support before going long and I don't particularly want to fade the short term trend.
ES review & plan
New highs were made overnight on Friday, which were not challenged in the RTH. Volume was extremely low at just 1m contracts and 3bn shares traded on NYSE. The odds of the 2122.75 being revisited at some point in RTH are high, though if there is no follow through volume we may see the poor low from last Thursday at 2103.50 revisited and a test of the 2095.50 composite high volume node within last Tuesday and Wednesday's balance.
Overnight the market has moved slightly lower with a range of 2112.25-2120.75 versus settlement at 2119.00 on Friday. It's a relatively light week for economic numbers and the FOMC and ECB minutes are released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
Failure below the initial support zone at 2111.75-13.50 could see weak longs bail and see a push into the lower zones. The initial resistance zone at 2120.00-2122.75 is the longs first target, with no hard resistance above there.
ES review & plan
A slow trend day higher on low volume with 1.1m contracts trading and 3.2bn shares on NYSE. The weak high at 2013.50 and 2015.00 were gradually broken, with little give back over the session, with the overnight high giving support once broken. The poor low left at 2103.50 (possibly where the market has got too short) after moving away from the balance area of the prior two days. The afternoon pullback low at 2114.50 will be an important level to defend for bulls or there is likely to be some liquidation from weak longs.
Overnight the market has pushed higher through the previous all time high at 2119.75. The range is 2116.00-2122.75 versus settlement at 2117.50. Numbers due are Empire State Manufacturing at 7.30, Industrial Production at 8.15 and Consumer Sentiment at 9.00 CT.
Expectations are for continuation until we see a break of support and failure on a retest from below, which can then be used as resistance for a move to lower support.
ES review & plan
The early attempt to push through the overnight high yesterday failed and saw a steady move lower back into the prior day's value area, with buyers strongly defending the lows on the day and both sides accepting value around the 2095.50 composite high volume node. This area of balance where the past 2 day's P and b shaped profiles have formed around is the base for the next directional move.
Overnight so far the range is 2092.00-2105.50 versus settlement at 2094.50. The dollar index has continued lower with EURUSD breaking out to the upside and the Bund yield pushing back to last weeks high. Treasury bond futures are close to unchanged after yesterday's big reversal from the initial rally after the weak retail sales and well received 10 year auction. There's Jobless Claims and PPI at 7.30 am ct, Consumer Comfort Index at 8.45am ct and a 30 year auction at midday.
The overnight move higher away from balance was fast and favours continuation higher to the upper resistance zones. A retest of the 2095.50-97.25 zone in regular trading hours would be preferable with more volume. Failure to hold the 2091.50-93.25 support zone could see a big liquidation move to the lower zones.