ES review & plan

The early attempt to push through the overnight high yesterday failed and saw a steady move lower back into the prior day's value area, with buyers strongly defending the lows on the day and both sides accepting value around the 2095.50 composite high volume node. This area of balance where the past 2 day's P and b shaped profiles have formed around is the base for the next directional move.

Overnight so far the range is 2092.00-2105.50 versus settlement at 2094.50. The dollar index has continued lower with EURUSD breaking out to the upside and the Bund yield pushing back to last weeks high. Treasury bond futures are close to unchanged after yesterday's big reversal from the initial rally after the weak retail sales and well received 10 year auction. There's Jobless Claims and PPI at 7.30 am ct, Consumer Comfort Index at 8.45am ct and a 30 year auction at midday.

The overnight move higher away from balance was fast and favours continuation higher to the upper resistance zones. A retest of the 2095.50-97.25 zone in regular trading hours would be preferable with more volume. Failure to hold the 2091.50-93.25 support zone could see a big liquidation move to the lower zones.