Friday Prep
Yesterday's overnight breakout attempt failed and we saw the RTH high fail to push above the prior day's value. The morning break lower held just above Monday's globex swing low and most of the afternoon traded around the current range vpoc at 2135.
So far overnight the range is 2128.75-38.50 and has been in a downtrend from the high. Going into the open I'm using 32.25 as a bull/bear level ( yesterday's overnight low/Weds RTH low/overnight vwap/weekly vwap).
Holding below 32.25 increases chances of move to close Monday's settlement gap and nVPOC and test the poor low at 16.75. The 16.50-18.50 zone is where we may see longer time frame support. Above 32.25, the 37.25-39.25 zone is initial resistance I have for today.
Thursday Prep
Yesterday pushed higher into the longer time frame resistance zone (40.50-42.50) and left a P shaped profile and poor high which increases the likelihood of continuation higher unless we see acceptance below yesterday's open (2136.50).
Overnight so far the range is 2136.25-2144.50 ahead of the ECB announcement. I would expect to see either a false breakout and reversal lower or a breakout up towards the next CHVN at 2152.75.
Having pushed through yesterday's RTH high overnight, the initial battle zones for either side I see as 36.25-38.50 for longs and 42.50-44.50 for shorts. Breaking and holding below/above these zones could see a directional move either way.
Wednesday Prep
Yesterday's initial move lower into the 29-31 zone found support from buyers and the rally then struggled to hold above the 37-37.75 zone (Friday's pullback high to open) which then saw a drop back to initial support into the close.
Overnight the range is currently 2126.50-35.50. The vpoc of the current balance is 2130.50, which bulls will want to maintain control above. The 40.50-42.50 remains key resistance and a move and hold above that zone could lead to a short covering rally back up to the prior balance vpoc at 52.75.
Initial support zone at 29-30.50 and holding below there puts sellers in control with initial target at yesterday's overnight low at 2120.25
The 4hr chart with custom profiles shows areas of balance below:
Zones for today below:
Tuesday Prep
Yesterday opened at 2127.00, which was the prior day settlement, and tested higher to 2130.00, which was the prior week VPOC (see below), and rejected it quickly. Market internals were not overly weak despite the bulk of trade taking place below the prior day's low.
Overnight the market has trended higher with the range currently 2120.25-2139.75, pushing up against towards longer time frame resistance. Holding above the 29-31 zone puts shorts offside from yesterday, but holding below there could see retest of yesterday's low. Breaking above the 40.50-42.50 zone puts the 51.25-53.75 zone next target.
Updated zones for today below:
Monday Prep
The gap up open on Friday built volume above the overnight high in the morning, in an area of potential longer time frame resistance. Short term longs were forced to liquidate on failure to gain ground and sellers dominated down to the prior vpoc/close area. The pullback rally stopped 1 tick below the initial balance low before sellers stepped in and made new lows after the cash close, following a strong sell-off in bonds.
The 4 hr chart below shows the areas of balance since the Brexit vote. The market is currently holding above the composite low volume area just above 2100. A move lower through and rejection on re-test would indicate a continuation lower to test the breakout points from July and back towards the composite high volume area around the 2046 CVPOC.
Overnight the range is currently 2116.75-2128.75. Earnings season is in full flow this week. Zones for today below - expecting sellers to step in on rallies unless market can hold above Friday's high.
Friday Prep
The large gap from yesterday's open continued lower straight through the overnight low and stopped at the Sept 15th swing low at 2107.75. This had potential for longer time frame buyers to step in and trap a lot of shorts with the market over 20 points off the prior close. There was aggressive buying in D period and a trending move higher began once holding above the open, back towards prior settlement
Overnight so far the range is 2122.25-38.75 having rallied during the European session. Bonds have given back their gains from yesterday post 30yr auction. Financials are in the spotlight for earnings today with JPM already reporting better than expected numbers, with retail sales and PPI due at 07:30 ct.
Today's zones i'm using below - if the market can break through the 2138.25-40.50 and hold above we could see continuation higher towards the 2152.50 CHVN
Thursday Prep
Yesterday's trade was balanced and concentrated in a small range around the prior day VPOC ahead of the Fed minutes. The break higher stopped at the prior day pullback level at 2159.50 and the continuation of the prior day's trend didn't happen until after the RTH close.
Overnight has broken lower, driven largely by weaker than expected Chinese trade figures. The range currently is 2131.00-2113.50, bouncing off a settlement gap from Sept 14th. The majority of volume traded so far is in the 2116.25-19.25 area. Notes and bonds have rallied from yesterday's lows. There's certainly a risk-off feel to markets today and we are likely to open on a large gap lower given current prices. My primary expectation is for sellers to be active on rallies and for a potential test of the larger time frame support areas from last month. Acceptance back inside yesterday's range changes short term bias to more neutral.
Zones for today (short term bull/bear zone 2126.25-27.50)
Wednesday Prep
Yesterday's overnight move back to the CHVN at 2152.75 following the failed break out. The RTH opened at that level and popped up a point before the drive lower, straight through the high volume support area from last Friday. After making a temporary poor low in E/F periods, which had breached the recent balance low at 2132.75, we saw a short covering pop to a tick below the initial balance low and passive absorption was evident by sellers before the next leg down.
Overnight so far the range is 2129.75-40.75 with the majority of volume traded below yesterday's VPOC.
I'm using 2132.75-34.50 as the bull/bear zone for today but would still expect sellers to be dominant on rallies into the first two resistance zones. Yesterday was an impulsive move and my primary expectation would be for sellers to attempt a drive lower on pullbacks. A move back above the 2146.25 level could see some aggressive short covering up to the 2152.75 CHVN. Zones for today below:
Tuesday Prep
Quiet holiday volume (sub 1m contracts) and a small RTH range followed an overnight rally which failed to gather momentum. Overnight the market has fallen back to the CHVN at 2152.75 which is an important pivot following the attempted break higher yesterday.
The overnight range is currently 2151.75-2160.75 having sold off from the highs soon after opening. 2159.00 was yesterday's overnight high and settlement price and I would expect sellers to be active at that level.
Overnight resistance zone at 2155.50-56.50 and initial support zone at 2148.75-51.75. Breaking initial support could see an attempted strong directional move lower depending on volume, order flow and market internals. If the market can regain the 2159 level and hold above, next target is 2166, where responsive sellers could step in (CLVN).
Thursday Prep
Yesterday saw most of the movement happen pre-market with a turnaround rally and had a slow balanced RTH session holding above the overnight high predominantly. There was a failed late attempt to take out the prior day's high.
Overnight the range is currently 2147.50-2155.75 with no news of tapering from the ECB, a spike above $50 on crude and multi-decade lows in jobless claims rallying the dollar and seeing further pressure on bonds.
Not much change to the zone areas today. The market is likely to remain choppy within the current week's value area at 2149.00-56.25. Any sustained breaks either way are less likely ahead of tomorrow's employment report with 2152.50 the composite high volume node of the current balance area where the market may gravitate towards in absence of market moving news.