Review & Plan - Thursday
Review
The market held within the recent balance and tested near the upper extremes (leaving a poor high)and settled at 76.75 back near the range VPOC (77.75).
The daily chart below shows the vwap on the year so far with standard deviation bands. The 2nd upper SD is at 2155.25 which would be the initial target if we get a remain vote and the VWAP is at 1978.50 which would be the downside target if we get a leave vote.
The odds with betting exchanges are heavily skewed towards remain, with an implied probability of 86% currently.
Overnight
A poll released during the Globex close was weighted towards remain which saw cable (GBPUSD) gap a full point higher and continue to new highs on the year.
ES reopened on a gap higher at 2083, which will be a bull/bear level for today.
Plan
Voting doesn't finish until 4pm cst and results won't be until Friday 1am cst. Current acceptance above recent balance leans towards higher prices and initially the naked naked VPOCs above. Until there is acceptance below 83, I would expect rotation around the upper zones.