ES review & plan

Continuous back-adjusted contract

Yesterday's action left a reasonably balanced profile below the prior day's value area. Volume dropped off (UK bank holiday also) on the final day of the month, to settle at 1969.25.

Overnight, China released deteriorating and contracting data on the manufacturing index and PMI. The range so far is 1966.25 (1 tick below yesterday's VAL) down to 1914.50 We may see some short inventory correction after the open given the size of the gap potentially. The overnight move has gone down back through the thin regular trading hours rally profile from 08/26 and single prints from 08/27.

A key zone on the composite volume profile for bulls to get back above is the 1938-40 high volume area. Under there, shorts have the upper hand in my view and we have more downside potential initially back to the low volume 1862-67 area.

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