ES review & plan
Full Globex Session
Another interesting day with high volume/range in the futures and underlying market. Initially there was the attempted push lower in the morning, trading though the single prints formed on Tuesday down to 1975.50. The market appeared to have got itself too short down there, which sparked the huge counter move.
There are a few references on the above chart we may see responsive activity - the first at 1968.00 (50% pullback from the 08/18 high to 08/24 low). This is also the top of the range gap still open and is an HVN on the composite profile. Shorts will want to get back under the old range low and 1938 HVN to target back towards the single prints from Monday. If longs can hold within the old range, 1978.25 and 2000.00 come back onto the radar.
The market is still attempting to find balance lower in my view, but in the process force out as many weak hands as possible. As we approach month end we can also see the move back towards the monthly VWAP. Overnight support can be seen at the 1SD band.
My main expectation for today is for the Friday-Monday gap to be filled and for responsive sellers to then close the gap we are likely to have from last night and push down through to the 1923.50 area. Acceptance above Friday's settle though could see the upward move continue.