We saw value overlap lower yesterday after a lack of agreement between Greece and it's creditors. The saga continues but is approaching an endgame. Participation was light (though much higher than the prior day) despite the news, with volume 1.2m contracts and 3.2bn shares on NYSE. Light volume has now become average volume for the summer.
The initial balance high was 1 ticked and failed, and weak longs bailed to encourage shorts to push through the weak low at 2097 and towards the naked VPOC at 2091.50 pointed out yesterday. There was no continuation to the downside action as shorts appeared to cover back up to the initial balance low and then formed a lower balance distribution.
I'm moving yesterday's bull/bear zone down from 2108.50 to 2097.00-99.50.
We're not expected to hear anything further of substance on Greece until the weekend so we may just see two-sided traded today with a late day positioning move. Overnight the range has been 2090.50-2095.25 on very low volume so far. (2090.50 is the 127.2% fib retracement of the 06/19-06/22 swing move). Consumer sentiment is due at 9am ct.
I'm expecting a test of the bull/bear zone initially and if the market failure to break through it would put the 2082.00-83.25 zone in the sights. If the market does break and hold the 2097.00-99.50 zone, I'm expecting a move to 2106.00-08.00 with potential to 2111.50-12.75. Going into the close ahead of this weekends talks I would expect to see a move back to the composite high volume area.