ES review & plan
Monday's rapid rise was fueled by short covering. Yesterday's move pushed through the poor high left on Monday and tested the pullback low from Monday at 2072.25 early on. Once the high was tested again, there was no follow through. Cumulative delta dropped off and although value was moving higher on the day, a lot of the buying power had been taken out of the market after shorts had covered from Monday's rally. The late break lower gathered momentum towards the single prints. Volume was low on the day at 1m contracts and just over 3bn shares on NYSE.
The close was below the overnight low and formed a volume distribution from 2067.25-71.75. Longs will want to be above 2071.75 for a greater chance of testing yesterday's POC/VPOC. Failure to push into yesterday's initial balance increases the likelihood of a push lower towards the prominent POC/VPOC from April 2nd at 2059.25 and through the long spike of single prints.
Overnight so far has traded lower in the range of 2064.50-2073.75 versus settlement at 2067.75. With the FOMC minutes being released at 1pm ct we are likely to see balance forming ahead followed by a break from balance after.