Yesterday opened on a gap lower which initially pushed lower to test Friday's RTH low. After a re-test and stop test of the low there was a strong rally which closed the range gap and stopped short of Monday's IB low. This spike saw a quick reversal and the remainder of the day balanced below the prior day's value but above yesterday's open.
There was divergence at the lows with the cumulative delta as seen on Monday.
Volume was nearly 2m contracts yesterday and 4.1bn shares on NYSE. Volume has started to pick up in the March contract with rollover immininent.
There is concern from JPM's star quant analyst who warns of the largest S&P options expiry in many years less than 48 hours after the heavily anticipated FOMC announcement. The article is here.
The Globex chart below shows the current range with custom volume profile. Until longs can dominate above the composite high volume area between 2079.00-88.00, we are likely to see failed rallies.
Overnight so far has ranged between 2052.25-68.50 versus settle at 2058.75, so fairly neutral so far and within yesterday's range.
Zones for today are below and if the market can hold below yesterday's value area I think there's a high chance that the 2040 area gets tested with potential for more downside towards the naked VPOC at 2025.00.
If, however, the market can push and hold above the 2062.75-64.50 resistance zone, there's a chance buyers can squeeze shorts and attempt a push back up to the 2079.00 composite VPOC area.