ES review & plan
Globex
A roller coaster session began with a look and reject below Tuesday's low, pre-market. After the open drive higher, the move through the prior day's balance saw a squeeze and push up to the composite VPOC 2079.00 area. Responsive selling stepped in with a drive lower and weak longs liquidated, with the bulk of volume trading below the prior day's range.
NYSE volume was 4.3bn shares and ES was at 2.6m (with March 380k). However, liquidity in the order book was thin.
A look at the current range with a custom volume profile (left) formed with the swing high and low last month shows how aggressively the 2079.00 composite VPOC (right) was rejected and moved back below value. As I said yesterday, until the market can hold above that area of high volume I think we'll see selling into it.
The next week could be the trickiest time to trade of the year so far, and yesterday may have been a taste of what's to come.
Zones I'm watching for today are below. Overnight so far the range is 2036.00-46.75 versus settle at 2042.00. Short term bias is with shorts unless the market starts trading back inside Tuesday's range again which would trap a lot of shorts from yesterday afternoon that didn't close out.