ES review & plan
Wednesday's trade going into the holiday was light in volume, unsurprisingly (741k contracts & 2.7bn shares on NYSE). Regular trading hours range was the ovenight low, which coincided with the prior day's initial balance low, pushing up to the overnight high at the end of the day.
The VPOC at 2067.00 of the range in the past week is prominent and key for longs to hold onto if a more serious liquidation break is to be avoided. 2064-2071 is the value area created so far. Acceptance below 2064 and failure to break break above 2067 on a retest would signal the likelihood of a break to the gap from 2054.75-2052.50.
A look at the longer term charts shows the upside objectives.
The monthly continuous contract shows the 161.8% extended retracement of the Oct '07 high to March '09 low at 2156.00, which is 4.3% higher than where we are currently. I think the odds are high of this bringing longer term money in as responsive sellers.
The weekly chart shows we are currently pausing at the first major fib extended retracement of the Sept-Oct near 200 point swing. The next objective is the 161.8% of this move at 2139.00.
Stocks close early today and volumes are expected to remain light. Crude's sharp falls will be the major influence on the market again today for oil and transport related stocks.