ES review & plan
Yesterday saw another fresh high and low volume (976k contracts & 3.3bn shares on NYSE). Following the pit open there was a rally to exactly the overnight high, which then failed. The target then was the prior day's poor low, which was also the overnight low. This was hit in the second hour of trade, running through stops and finding a low at 2062.75, an HVN from last Friday. Buyers pushed prices back up into the prior range leaving value slightly overlapping higher.
2067.00 is a key high volume node for bulls to maintain above for continued upside. Durable goods and jobless claims are due at 07:30 ct, Chicago PMI at 08:45 ct (released a few mins prior for subscribers), consumer sentiment at 08.55 ct and new home sales at 09:00 ct. Going into the Thanksgiving holiday, volumes will probably be light.
The most likely scenarios today I think will be possibly:
1. Yesterday's range is held and volume builds above the 2067 HVN to challenge the highs again. With trends all up this remains the highest odds move, though I think the market is setting itself up for a bigger fall the longer this goes on. The market closed approximately 70 points above it's 50 day moving average, which is very stretched.
2. Volume builds below 2067 and pushes through yesterday's low to test last Friday's POC/VPOC and value area low.
3. Yesterday's range is rejected and the open gap from last Thursday/Friday is targeted.
The current HVN at 2067.00 is also a key fib level for the pit session: