ES Review & Plan
Yesterday's trade was very light in terms of volume due to Veterans Day (779k contracts & 2.95bn shares on NYSE) . The majority of time spent and volume traded was within the upper distribution from Monday, and value was left overlapping higher. A new all time high was left in Globex at 2039.00 which was not matched during the pit session. The poor high that was left on the day could be a sign that the rally is tired, although the day appeared to be dominated by day timeframe traders.
The Vix is back to the 12.5/13 level making downside protection with out of the money puts a lot more attractive. It's a light economic calendar today, with a 10yr note auction at 12:00pm cst.
The most likely scenarios I envisage today are either:
1. Support remains above Monday's lower distribution and value drifts higher to take out yesterday's globex high and then falls back to find support within the last two days range.
2. The market opens within yesterday's range but fails to hold above the 2033/34 area and a liquidation break pushes to Monday's low and into Friday's range, regaining support around the 2028 high volume area.
3. The market opens below yesterday's range and one-timeframes lower targeting multiple downside references and stops areas.