Yesterday saw highs pushed further on a slow and relatively narrow range day. The early low tagged the prior settlement and 50% of the prior day's range. The low that was left was poor, however, before a rally higher though the prior day's high establishing value higher on the day leaving a 2032.75 POC (2033.00 VPOC). Cumulative delta (i.e. the net of volume taken on the offer vs hit on the bid) trended higher throughout the day once the low was in. The high left is weak. Volume was just 957k contracts and 3.28bn shares on NYSE.
There are two clear distributions to treat separately, split at 2030.25.
We have yet to see any signs of excess on the highs and the VIX is showing signs of complacency. Stops must be stacking up trailing the higher daily lows and leave the market vulnerable to a compounding down move, but for now this would be betting against your friend, the trend.
Bond markets are closed for Veterans Day but equities are likely to be quieter and possibly slippier in price. Globex has made new highs at 2039.00 as at 03.00 cst. There are no economic announcements due today.
The bias remains to the long side. Possible scenarios today are:
1. Higher value, finding early support at yesterday's upper distribution lower extreme at the lowest before continuing higher in slow trade.
2. Buyers fail to hold above yesterday's upper distribution and prices balance within Friday's range but finding support around the high volume area at 2028.00.
3. Longs liquidate bringing short term shorts into the market to attempt to push beyond last Thursday's low and back into the balance area between 2019.25-1995.25.