ES Recap & Preparation
The market one-timeframed higher for the duration of last week and attempting to balance before making it's next directional move. The speed and magnitude of the rally favour a correction, but the only evidence so far of weakness is a decline in volume over the past few days. Longs are still in the driving seat, for now. The FOMC minutes will put the transmission in drive or reverse, and probably in sport mode!
Yesterday balanced within Friday's range on the lowest volume we've seen in a while at 1.4m contracts. Cumulative delta was trending higher after the low was made but prices failed to break out to the upside and challenge the overnight high at 1965.75.
The break lower early in the session saw responsive buyers step in around the MCVPOC of the balance area from last week:
The upside targets the key resistance and previous weak highs between 1968.75-1971.25. The 78.6% fib retracement of the 2014.50 high to 1813.00 low is at 1971.25. This could be an attractive area for shorts but also where they could be trapped and forced to cover aggressively.
On the downside, acceptance below yesterday's low could trigger a run of trailing stops with the progressively higher lows on the way up. 1918.25 is a major area for bulls to defend but if that fails, the open gap at 1910-1900 would be next and acceptance below that would see the 1850 composite VPOC next major target.
