ES Recap & Preparation
Friday saw buyers continue to push value higher. The market has been one time framing for the whole week and the expectation was for some liquidation on Friday but this didn't occur once the high from Thursday had been taken out and buyers held above this area into the close leaving a bullish end to the week.
The market is now in a relatively high volume area and on the upside there is potential key resistance at 1968.75 to 1971.00. With the market still one time framing higher on a daily basis there is no reason to be short of this market yet, even though volume has dropped off considerably in the last few days. I'm cautious, however, particularly in light of the fragility of the market when headlines concerning Ebola cause sudden sharp drops triggered by news algos and the size and speed of the recovery from the lows. The Vix index is back to 16 after peaking at 31 the week prior, and liquidity improved in the ES order book as a result this week.
The monthly candle has so far had a huge reversal leaving a very long tail which is unlikely to remain untested in my opinion.
One time framing lower has stopped on the weekly basis after last week's reversal.
Regular trading hours shows the open gap below but bulls continue to push higher. The 78.6% fib is next measured move to look for response at 1970.
Overhead is key resistance between 1968.75-1971.00
Attempted balance in the latter part of the week leaves a mcvpoc at 1945.25
Friday's profile leaves 3 volume distributions for reference (separated by the blue lines) and a buying tail.
It's a relatively light economic calendar this week but the FOMC meet on Tuesday and report on Wednesday to hopefully give some guidance on the timing of the first rate rise and give clarity to changes to QE, if at all.
Anticipated moves and destinations if levels are accepted or rejected