Monday Prep

Friday’s employment report triggered the spike pre-market into the 92-94 zone. Once open there was a brief (failed) attempt to close the range gap from Thursday followed by a very slow, narrow range balancing at higher prices leaving a pronounced distribution between 92-95. This will be a useful frame of reference for today as acceptance above 95 or below 92 could help with directional conviction today.

Overnight so far the range is 2889.00-2999.50 versus settle at 2896.00. The pullback overnight after the initial spike higher dropped back into the monthly value area high, LVN and recent breakout area (see highlighted area below). If we begin to see the market hold inside the value area high for long then this increases the chances of the upside breakout failing and seeing a move back down to the other side of value. Holding above that area keeps the bull case intact for now and targets 2900+.

Areas of interest for today below. With daily, weekly and monthly trends bullish, I’d want to see acceptance below the overnight low/monthly value area high before initiating shorts. A rally into the 2899.25-01.25 zone could see responsive sellers engage and the underlying momentum and market internals will need to be gauged in real time as to whether buyers continue to drive through there or it fails and there’s some long liquidation.

This week’s US economic calendar: