Thursday Prep

Post-FOMC we saw an attempt to continue higher which rapidly ran out of steam after Powell’s press conference finished. Rapid liquidation and very heavy market on close (MOC) selling on NYSE left a volume distribution at the low end of the day’s trade, settling at 2911.50.

Overnight has retested the 2907.50 low and bounced, currently trading within the single prints left from the afternoon drop. The range is 2907.50-16.25 so far.

The monthly and weekly bars remain bullish for now, though there’s been a clear breakdown on the daily, short term, with high underlying share volume (though approaching quarter end this is expected). The single prints left from yesterday could be retraced if the market can hold above settlement and the top of the volume distribution left. However, my main expectation is for sellers to step in on rallies until proved otherwise. A move back above yesterday’s VPOC would change this expectation as it would have needed significant buying power.

Opening and holding below the 2912 area would be more bearish, and I’d be looking for downward continuation. Last week’s low was 2883.50.

Zones of interest for today are below and US data due here :