Friday’s price action was once again dominated by sellers in the morning session after opening at the prior vpoc and making a brief attempt higher into the 2913-16 zone. This zone represented the edge of the prior day’s single prints and the overnight high.
The move lower sliced through the overnight low leaving single prints between 2895.00-99.50, separating the distributions on the day. The poor low at 73.25 stopped short of the 69.50-72.50 zone and thereby holding within the prior month’s range. The market settled at 2894.00 on high volume of 2.2m contracts, closing just below the January high of 2894.50. Yields were once again higher in treasuries, with the 10 yr at 3.23%.
Overnight so far the range is 2882.50-98.25 (2898.25 was Friday’s overnight low). The bond market is closed for Colombus Day but stocks remain open. The ongoing problems in Italy and the large drop in Chinese stocks after returning from holiday (despite a 1% cut in the RRR for some banks) has added to weakness in European markets.
For ES today, in the absence of economic data, we may see trade inside of Friday’s wide range. The selling of the past few days leaves the possibility of a short squeeze holding above Friday’s settle or if that fails to happen, the probability of a test of last month’s low increases. There needs to be broad market participation and momentum to the downside to bring in more sellers below last month’s low or else longer time frame buyers may attempt to reverse price action off/within the 69.50-72.50 zone.
Today’s zones below: