Tuesday Prep

A weak day overall with a initial failed move higher after the open. Value was lower on the day with the 2760.25 vpoc forming below the prior day low and a poor low left at 2751.00. Price action was messy for much of the session and neither the overnight high or low was breached, which is unusual.

Overnight saw heavy selling across Asia, which has driven European markets lower. The ES range is currently 2757.50-2714.25, with the bulk of trade in the lower half of the range. Last week’s low was 2745.25 and the October low from the 11th is 2712.25. Clearly the market is very short relative to last night’s close and susceptible to a squeeze higher on positive news. Sentiment is negative though and my main expectation is for rallies to be sold if they happen.

Zones of interest for today are below. The 2711.75-14.50 zone is the intermediate bull/bear as a close below there could trigger much more selling. Currently the market would be opening on roughly a 35 point gap lower to last night’s settle at 2756.50. If there’s an early move back to the overnight vwap in the first hour, it could be telling whether that holds or not to the ongoing action.

On the composite volume profile the nearby high volume area is around 2728-34, so any absence of further breakdown or complete reversal could see prices continue to consolidate in that area.