A slightly belated Happy New Year to all my subscribers; wishing you all a healthy, happy and prosperous 2017. This is the first note I've put out for a few weeks on the ES, so a top-down review is needed before looking at the shorter time frame.
The chart above has the weekly bars overlaying the monthly volume profiles and the composite profile on the right (1500 days back adjusted). We have a monthly bullish trend and weekly neutral/bullish.
The post-election up-trend left a new all-time high in mid-December, and an intermediate term range has been formed over the past month between 2227.75-2273.00 and a VPOC at 2257.00
The year opened with a gap higher which has not yet filled fully. A break and hold below the year end pullback low at 2228.00 would challenge the weekly trend and trap December longs which could lead to a liquidation move lower. Until then the bias is neutral/bullish as we could continue to balance within the range and/or breakout to the upside.
The hourly chart above shows the current intermediate-term range with a custom volume profile. We can see that the market has gravitated back towards the range VPOC since the start of the year.
If the market can hold above 2257.00, then a move up to the value area high of that range would be expected, at 2266.75. This is also an area where the market broke down on Dec 28th and is the next key resistance area to break through ahead of the all-time high.
Overnight has ranged between 2251.00-2258.50 with a bullish bias but on low volume. Zones for today are as follows: