Friday was another low volume, low volatility, small range day which left value on the day overlapping lower. The RTH chart above shows the naked VPOCs and open gap during the US session.
Overnight trade opened on a gap lower following the crude oil meeting in Doha, which traded down up to $3 in the early Asian session.
Overnight so far ES has ranged between 2058.50 (rth range gap high from April 12th high) to 2072.75 (rth VAL on Friday). A descending channel has formed on the 60min chart below which may see sellers active at the upper band, though a break and hold above will show buyers dominance and potential continuation higher from this flag formation. If price begins to accept below the composite VPOC and top of the range VAL then I would anticipate further weakness towards the range VPOC at 2040.50.
2075.50 remains the bull/bear level for me today, which is the HVN of the last few days trade visible in the top left corner below. Crude is going to be a dominant factor for ES today, plus keeping a close eye on the Yen futures which have had a recent inverse correlation with the market.
Plan for today:
Short term bias in bearish within a longer term bullish structure. The bull/bear zone for me today is 2074.50-76.00 so I'm anticipating sellers to be active into that zone or below broken support areas. If the RTH gap is filled during the day session, this is an area for longs to defend and push back above the 2061.50 composite VPOC. If we see longs fail to hold that area I would expect a liquidation move lower towards 2040.50.
Zones for today: