Review & Plan Feb 12th
We saw a new low for the year in the overnight market at 1802.50 yesterday but failed to take out the level in regular hours. Volume was the third highest of the year at 3.19m contracts and 5.46bn shares on NYSE. The Jan 20th low day has the highest volume of the year at 3.91m contracts and 6.33bn shares on NYSE.
Despite the wild swings in the afternoon a balanced profile was left on the day and the lowest close this year at 1824.50. There still remains a gap above to fill and the market is still likely to see sellers step in on rallies while it remains below last week's low at 1865.00. If the market starts trading back inside last week's range I'm going to be cautious with shorts, especially if we see acceptance above last weeks close at 1875.25.
Overnight the market is higher with stocks in Europe. The range currently is 1822.50-1848.50 versus settlement at 1824.50. There is a US market holiday on Monday. The weekly VPOC is 1848.00.
Retail Sales came in at 0.2% month on month vs 0.1% consensus
Scenarios today I'm expecting are either:
1. Hold the 1832.50-34.75 zone and attempt to push above 1855.00 towards the 1863.75-65.75 zone
2. Balance higher between the 1823-1855 area seeing two-way trade
3. Reject the overnight high and attempt to push back into yesterday's value area down to the 15.75-17.50 zone.
4. Accept back inside yesterday's value area and attempt to take out yesterday's overnight low.
Zones I'm using today are: