The bull/bear zone for yesterday at 2119-21.00 was tested early following a driving move off the open. Once this was broken the trending move lower gathered pace, with market internals supportive of continuation.
The RTH swing low from Oct 13th at 2107.75 was a key level to hold for longs, but this broke easily. The move exhausted into 2091.00 and short covering action left a 5 handle buying tail on the profile.
The boxed area above shows where the bulk of volume and time was spent during RTH (value area levels are of little use on trend days). Given the market has broken larger time frame support, the bias remains negative while price remains below the top of this area at 2108.75.
If we open within the 2096.25-2108.75 area I would expect choppy, volatile trade.
A break and hold above 2108.75 could see short covering up to yesterday's overnight low at 2114.75 and potentially 2119.00.
If 2096.25 fails to hold then continuation lower towards the July 7th open settlement gap and nVPOC at 2085.50 and 84.00 are next references below yesterday's low. The 2080.50-81.50 represents the July 8th Globex low and micro range nVPOC, before the launch into new all time highs in August.
Overnight so far has ranged between 2094.50-2104.50, ahead of the FOMC announcement later today. Zones I'm using today are below: