ES review & plan
Yesterday was the biggest range and volume we've seen for a month (38.75 points and 2.35m contracts with 4.27bn shares on NYSE).
The low was made at exactly the 200 day ema of the continuous contract and then rallied straight back towards the composite VPOC at 2088.00, leaving a very long buying tail on the daily candle.
Looking at the longer term picture out of interest, below is the last 3 months performance of the underlying sector ETFs. The outperformance by defensive sectors relative to the weak energy, industrials and material is not a great sign for the economic outlook.
Yesterday opened within the range gap, just below the VPOC from 8/07. This was rejected and the aggressive push through the overnight low found buyers at the 200 day ema and, after some consolidation in the 2051-56 area, one time-framed higher for the rest of the session leaving a poor high.
Above there is a settlement gap and naked VPOC/POC just below a poor high, so am looking for this to be the initial target and potential push through 2100 towards the poor high made on 8/5 at 2107.00. Below, there was notable volume at 2082.25/50 to watch for support, plus 08/11 VPOC at 2079.75. If this breaks then it could move quickly to the 2073/4 area. Buyers also stepped in yesterday at the 2068.25/50 area.
Overnight has continued higher after an early test down to 2076.00 to a high of 2093.00. On 08/10 there was notable overnight volume at 2090.50-91.50 which I'm watching as a potential pivot. Retail sales and Jobless Claims have had a small negative bias.
2088.00 is the composite VPOC, so a push in either direction to test low volume areas is possible. I'm expecting value to be higher today, though more rotational.
Buy Zones
79.75-83.50, 73.75-76.50, 66.50-68.50
Sell Zones
98.25-01.75, 07.00-09.00
Using the order flow and context when at the zone for entry/exit decisions.