Yesterday opened and attempted to take out the overnight low (also prior day's settle), but failed. The destination was then the overnight high which was hit in the morning but failed to hold above. The session was balanced within range and volume was 1.3m contracts and just 3.1bn shares on NYSE.
The equity markets have been ignoring the rout in the bond markets so far, but for how long?
The balance of the past 7 days trade will eventually lead to an imbalanced move, and with NFP and Greek headline risk, there could be some energy behind it. The all-time high remains untested in regular trading hours which has a high probability of happening, but the market may need to break from current balance to find cheaper buyers before that.
Overnight so far the range is 2099.75-2116.50 versus settlement at 2116.00, so the market is looking extremely short going into the open currently (opposite of yesterday). Jobless Claims & Productivity and Costs are at 7.30ct. The odds of seeing a move away from the current range ahead of tomorrow are probably slim, so I'm using the support/resistance zones for fade moves.
Most of the overnight volume is below yesterday's low and shorts look trapped above the 2105.75 overnight pullback level. If longs push back through yesterday's overnight low (2106.75) and hold above yesterday's RTH low (2107.25), we may see some forcing action to drive back through yesterday's range potentially.