ES review & plan

Friday saw a gap lower and attempt to fill in the weak structure left from Wednesday's rally. Most of the trade was under the overnight low and trade was heavy with a poor low being left on the day. There still remains an open gap and naked VPOC/POC from last Tuesday underneath for regular trading hours.

Overnight so far the market has moved lower, as European indices have fallen around 1% with the Greece endgame in sight. The other fear by the market apart from Greece defaulting is the knock-on effect to the likes of Portugal,Spain and Italy, whose bond yield spreads have been widening over bunds.

The current range is 2072.00-2081.50 versus settlement at 2085.00. It's an important week for data starting today with Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Housing Market Index. The main event is the FOMC announcement on Wednesday - an unexpected rate rise this early could see some carnage in the bond and equity markets. CPI is due on Thursday. Full US calendar here.


For today I'm using the zones below as areas of potential action/reaction. Sentiment is weak and overnight inventory short, so will be looking for clues in order flow of either a correction to inventory and then continuation lower or just continuation lower as being the two most likely scenarios I see. Thirdly, we could see a correction of shorts and continuation higher forcing more aggressive short covering action, into the gap above Friday and towards Thursday's naked VPOC.