ES review & plan
A low volume beginning to the week with just 1.1m contracts trading and only 2.99bn shares trading on NYSE. The early attempt to hold above the overnight high and break through Friday's high failed, leaving a weak top at 2113.50. Once the high had failed, weakness set in and there was a push into the gap.
The sell-off in the bond market took hold again after the brief recovery at the end of last week, which in turn is putting pressure on equity markets globally as yields continue to rise. This continued overnight beginning with a 10 year JGB auction seeing the lowest bid-to-cover since 2009 which saw yields spike globally and the Bund head back towards the high from last week.
Overnight the market has been heavy and is short with the range on ES currently 2079.25-2101.00 on higher than average volume, versus settlement at 2097.75. The market is likely to open on a significant gap lower, and gap trading rules apply (as per Jim Dalton).
The main expectation today is for an initial push higher to attempt to fill the gap but for sellers to regain control at resistance zones (see below). I'm watching ZB closely for further weakness or a turnaround.
US JOLTS are due at 9am CT and plenty of headline risk regarding Greece continues.