ES review & plan

Value overlapped lower after a balanced two-sided session before and after the POCM statement. It appeared to be day time frame in control once again after the early high reversed off the prior VPOC. The failed break above this late in the session saw aggressive selling through to the other side of value. Internals were weak generally, in terms of cumulative delta and advance/declines. Volume was higher on the session at 1.7m contracts and 4bn shares on NYSE trading.  A move away from either side of yesterday's value area could see a decent directional move, particularly on the downside.

There has been a big move higher in the German Bund yield over the past couple of days, which has driven the EURUSD sharply higher and seen the Dollar Index drop sharply. US notes and bonds have also been selling off sharply with the yield jump in Europe, even in the face of the very low GDP number yesterday. There has been a decent bounce off the lows overnight

The very low volume above the 2105 area is evident below on the composite volume profile. Until longs can hold above that level, I have a short bias. There are notable high volume nodes at 2095.50 and 2100.00, where trade may slow down around. If we see a break lower, the open globex gap between 2076.50-78.50 and prominent naked POC/VPOC at 2075.25/74.50 become the next major targets. A move and hold back above 2107.00 could see rapid short covering and put the highs back into focus.

The overnight range is currently 2090.25-2102.00 on above average volume with settlement at 2099.00.