ES review & plan

Wednesday's bullish turnaround and movement of value higher left a series of weak highs which increased the odds of an imbalanced move higher, as mentioned in yesterday's plan.

The first couple of hours of trade built volume in the upper range of Wednesday before the break out move. There were three distributions on the day, with the two above the breakout forming around 2107.25 and 2111.50, split by a low volume node at 2109.00. There are single prints between 2103.75-2105.50 which longs will want to avoid trading back through for continuation. 

Overnight the range is 2103.00-2113.25 versus settlement at 2107.00 There has been responsive buying from the breakout area and assuming this holds we should see higher prices. Trading back through the overnight low could see a retest of the high volume areas around 2100.00 and 2095.50.

Above the current high the next key measured move I see is at 2132.00, then 2159.75. These are the 127.2% and 161.8% extended retracements of the 2110.50 high on 25th Feb to 2030.75 low on 12th March, the range we have been trading within since. The major long term 161.8% fib of July '07 to March '09 is at 2156.00.