ES review & plan
Friday's primary expectation worked out but trade was slow and congested for the most part, apart from the initial move higher. The market looked as if it had got too long in the day timeframe and was at risk of a liquidation break, but this didn't happen. A poor high has been left at 2096.00, and I would expect this to get revisited. Volume was very low on the day at just 880,000 contracts and 3.1bn shares on NYSE. Internals were not particularly strong either, so for the bull move to continue there needs to be more volume and breadth preferably.
Value has shifted higher after the move away from prior balance. For continuation , longs will want to hold above the low of the upper distribution at 2091.25. Acceptance below that could see a test of the 2082.25-84.25 zone, which is my bull/bear zone today. Failure to hold above this area risks a move through last week's balance area and could see a rapid liquidation through the poor structure below it. The next upside profile target is the prominent POC/VPOC from March 23rd at 2102.75/03.00.
Overnight so far the range has been 2089.00-2097.75 versus settlement at 2095.50. There is a fairly busy economic calendar ahead this week, though quiet today. Bond yields are up overnight and the dollar index rallying back towards 100 again.
My expected scenarios today are either:
1. The market holds within Friday's value area and the poor high is taken out for continuation higher.
2. There is a test lower of the bull/bear zone to find responsive buyers and a push back up into Friday's value area.
3. Weak longs liquidate and prices are pushed back down into last weeks balance area below 2082.00.
I'm using the following price action & composite volume profile support/resistance zones in conjunction market profile structure and levels.