ES review & plan
The initial weakness after the open was short lived after failing below the overnight low and to fill the open gap. Responsive buyers took prices back to the 2100 level but failed to get to the prior day's value area. With developing value lower on the day the odds favoured a break lower if there was no follow through from buyers. The weak longs liquidated and the gap close and last Thursday's POC became the target.
Yesterday's low looks unfinished and we could see a test of Thursday's VPOC at 2081.00 and poor low at 2076.50 on weakness. There still are the remaining single prints from Fed day down to 2062.25 where little volume traded. The profile has been left with several anomalies which we may see repaired before any attempt lower.
Yesterday's 2083.50-85.50 support zone held into the close. We may see some back and fill and test of the nearest resistance zone at 2093.25-2095.25 before a move lower. Overnight the market has been balanced in a range between 2082.75-88.25 so far. Charles Evans is giving a speech at 6.30am ct and Durable Goods are due at 8.30am ct. The dollar index has been weak and has been heading back towards the low made on the flash crash last week while bonds yields continue to fall.
The most likely scenarios today I think are either:
1. We balance between near term support and resistance zones.
2. We balance between near term support and resistance zones before an extension lower to test next support.
3. We balance between near term support and resistance before an attempt to push back towards 2100.