ES review & plan

There was an attempt to push through the spike from Wednesday during regular trading hours but buyers still had control above the range breakout below at 2074.75. There is still a vacuum of volume on the way up which has a good chance of being revisited still, but the overall context remains bullish above the micro bull/bear zone currently.

On the profile yesterday the early highs were quickly rejected and there is a poor low where shorts have tried to push through a few times but failed and have been forced to cover. The market appeared to get too short in the day timeframe and returned to value. Overall it remained balanced below the overnight low.

While the market remains above the 2075 level I'm still looking for long opportunities on tests of support/profile levels and possibly fade resistance zones if there is very strong divergence with the market internals, though the bias is bullish for now.

There are no major US economic releases due and Charles Evans and Dennis Lockhart are speaking mid-morning. Quarterly expiry is at the open. Overnight the range is currently 2077.75-2092.00, overlapping higher to yesterday's range.

My expected scenarios for today are either: 

1. We continue to balance above yesterday's value area low and push higher above Wednesday's settlement and composite HVN.

2. We fail to push above yesterday's excess high and the prior lows are tested into the micro-bull/bear zone.

3. We fail to push above yesterday's excess high and the prior lows are broken and sellers take control through the single prints from Wednesday.

Day timeframe and market profile references: