ES review & plan

With rollover beginning yesterday there is distorted volume, but the underlying cash market traded 3.4bn shares on NYSE which is still below the long term average.

Following Wednesday's balanced day, going into yesterday I was looking for a directional move away from the micro bull/bear zone. We got this on the open with a brief test of the prior VPOC then a drive higher, fueled by short covering.  Late on in the day, the high from Tuesday and the open gap became the target, which would have been helped by stops. Settle remained above Tuesday's high and a double distribution was left on the profile.

There remains a lot of single prints in A period yesterday and no excess on the low from Wednesday. This leaves the likelihood of a revisit to these areas highly probable. In the short term though, the two distributions from yesterday are important areas of potential support which if they hold could lead to a move back to Monday's POC/VPOC and settle.

I've switched charts to June (ESM15) which has a 7.5 point discount to March.


Overnight so far has ranged between 2054.75-61.25. The dollar has recovered from yesterday's sell off, bonds are off and crude continues to get crushed having hit $46.52. PPI is due at 7.30ct and Consumer Sentiment at 9am ct.

Going into today's session I'm using 2058-62 as quite a wide bull/bear zone. This looks to be an inflection point where we saw a breakdown last Friday and this could be a heavily defended area for shorts and a challenge for longs to break.