ES review & plan

Volume was dire yesterday at under 850k contracts and only 3bn shares traded on NYSE. There were a few attempts to push under 2100 but bulls managed to support the level. A late rally pushed up to just above Friday's VPOC but there was not enough fuel to take out the poor high.

Janet Yellen begins a two day semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee at 9am ct today, so headline risk is again high. German GDP and the Eurozone inflation rate came in on consensus early this morning. Overnight the Chinese flash PMI  is expected, which gives an estimate ahead of the final PMI at the start of the month.

As long as the market can hold above the prior balance area from last week, the poor high from Friday looks likely to get taken out and continue higher. Yesterday's VPOC at 2102.75 is an important level for bulls to defend or we may see an attempt to push back into the prior range and value area between 2089.00-2096.50. As previously written a few times before, I think 2156 is our main objective and potentially an area longer term players will start to unwind. The structure below is weak, however, and a corrective move through last week's low could see a fast, sharp liquidation down to at least the 2060-62 area.