ES review & plan
Friday's new all time high was on very low volume in futures and the underlying cash market with just 1.2m contracts traded and 3.5bn shares on NYSE.
Scenario 2 played out with a test into Thursday's range, finding responsive buyers at an LVN under the VPOC. Shorts rapidly covered taking the index to new highs and closing above the prior high.
News that talks with Greece and the Eurozone have reached a stalemate has had a fairly muted reaction overnight, though it would have been a miracle if they had done deal. The deadline is now Friday for Greece to reach an agreement...good luck with that one!
Continued strength above the current highs leaves just measured moves as targets, and the only one I'm interested in at the moment remains the monthly 161.8% extended retracement of the Oct '07 - Mar '09 swing, which is at 2156.00.
Failure to hold above the 2088.75 level could see some liquidation and a retest of lower levels. The zones based on the composite volume profile and recent support/resistance levels are as follows:
A look at the RTH session's TPOs shows weak structure on this latest run-up. Closing the gap and testing buyer's support in the 2062-64 area would be favourable before a move higher.
It's a light economic data day in the US with Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Housing Index at 7.30am ct. Philly Fed President Charles Plosser is talking at 11.45am ct on the economic outlook and monetary policy.
Friday's VPOC at 2088.50 (1 tick under the prior all time high) will be an important pivot for direction.
Initial resistance above is the 2092.25-94.50 zone, then the 2099-2101 psychological level.
Initial support I see at 2081.50-82.75, 2074.25-75.25 and 2061.75-63.75