ES review & plan

Volume was steady yesterday at 1.5m contracts and 4bn shares traded on NYSE. The overnight range was rejected for the most part with value overlapping lower prior to Tuesday, though just staying within the range to the tick. Cumulative delta remained negative for the session, as were other market internals. The fact that the prior day's low was not taken out stopped a more aggressive sell-off. This now leaves the 2090.50 as a weak low in profile terms. 

The top of value coincides with yesterday's overnight low at 2100.50, and is a micro bull/bear level going into today. Laggard shorts from yesterday will be trapped above there and we could see some forcing action as they are squeezed out above. Holding below there puts the weak low as the next target at 2090.50 with next support in the 2085-87 area from Monday.

Overnight so far has ranged between 2091.50-2104.00 versus settlement at 2094.75, with the market rallying from near the lows for the past few hours. 

The Globex chart below shows anticipated moves/reactions between the initial support/resistance zones marked in green/red dotted lines, around the micro bull/bear in blue.

Jobless claims and Productivity and Costs are due at 07:30 ct, but clearly the main event is tomorrow's employment report, especially in light of Yellen's comments yesterday. Bonds continue to be weak with the rising dollar as potential for a Fed hike and ECB easing in the same month becomes a possibility.