ES review & plan
The move yesterday began in the overnight session, pushing down through the November range. The market was short overnight and after the open was choppy for the first couple of hours before an attempt to fill the gap above and squeeze shorts failed to follow through.
2051.25 was the bull/bear swing low from 10/27 and also a composite LVN. We saw stops run through initially down to 2049.00 then a rally back to the VWAP/VPOC area, as high as 2057.50 (1 tick below the open) for three separate periods (see above). The market one time framed lower for the remainder of the day.
Overnight has moved lower, with the range currently 2034.00-46.00 versus settlement at 2040.50. The 2034.25-37.50 zone will be an important one for bulls to hold as is visible below.
The rally from the September swing low to the 11/3 high has the 38.2% fib retracement at 2015.00. Under there the next major swing low is at 2007.50, the 50% fib at 1985.75 and swing low at 1982.50. If the longer term bulls are still in control I wouldn't expect to hold below the 2034.25-37.50 zone. Crude has been having a negative drag on the market for the past week with the energy sector down 5% versus a 2.5% fall in the S&P so worth keeping an eye on CL.
If we see a rally today, the profile references from yesterday may be resistance on first test. Above 2051.25 and especially 2057.50 as highlighted on the top profile chart, shorts are potentially in trouble.