ES review & plan

A look at the weekly chart shows the market forming a balance area between the Dec low and poor all time high. The odds remain low that the poor high will remain as there is little sign that the long term auction to the upside has finished. If we see continuation higher and a break above the current high, the long term objective remains 2156.00 (161.8% of Oct'07 to Mar '09 range).

If prices break further through the Dec low we could see another 100 points off quite quickly and a wider balance area form.

Following the down move to the 3 day balance leading up to the last Fed announcement, it would appear longer timeframes stepped in with responsive buying. Yesterday saw the first shift up in value and pressure increasing on any laggard shorts. Overnight the market has popped higher through the important 2025.50 level and up to 1 tick above Monday's RTH open at 2038.50. The 50% retrace of the whole move down is at 2036.50.

Following the break through the downtrend, the next upside target is 2048.00, the nVPOC on Jan 2nd.