ES review & plan

The first full week of the year began with a 30 point sell off. NYSE composite volume wasn't high at 3.8bn shares though 2m emini contracts traded, which is above average.

Once prices moved away from Friday's range after a brief push into the buying tail from Friday, and the open gap between 2011.00-2026.75 was then in play and was filled. Continued weakness in crude added to the emotionally driven selling.

The initial balance low at 2025.50 is now an important bull/bear level for today as failure to re-enter that zone saw a further 15 point break in E period. There is a lack of elongation on the downside, a b profile formation combined with a poor low and several anomalies which show that the trade was probably dominated by short term trading and not longer term money selling.

Yesterday's settlement and POC/VPOC will be an important bull/bear pivot area into the open around 2014.50-2016.00. If we see acceptance below and a push through yesterday's low the next major target below is the POC of the 3 days of balance up to the Fed's last announcement at 1986.50. If longs push above 2025.50 we could see a strong short covering rally, otherwise we likely balance within yesterday's value area.

Overnight the range is 2011.50-2022.50 with inventory likely neutral currently.