ES review & plan
Following the FOMC statement there was a brief attempt higher, but when there was no follow through the destination became the prior day's low. An aggressive liquidation ensued pushing through the low and towards the value area low of the range since mid December. The NYSE volume was 4 bn, so not anything particularly heavy. The pace of the liquidation could mean that this has been driven by short term money which can rally it just as fast with short covering.
There is a spike in the profile following the fall so spike rules are in play. I'm taking the top of the spike as 2010.25 and is resistance, with 2008.00 also an important pullback level.
Downward spike rules are in play so:
i) opening and trading above the spike is bullish as this shows rejection and leaves a potential buying tail. This doesn't look likely as at 07:00 ct.
ii) opening within the spike shows acceptance and keeps the break intact. The area between 1996-2000 traded a lot of volume and shows where two-sided trade took place into the cash close, with 1997.00 the HVN.
iii) opening below the spike is bearish as it is a sign the auction has not finished.
Overnight the VAL of the range was tagged and there has been some recovery temporarily.
The overnight range is 1987.75 - 2003.00 as at 07:00 ct, with the high finding resistance at a composite HVN. If there is acceptance below yesterday's settlement then there could be a more serious sell-off targeting the December low and then the composite VPOC at 1957.00.
Jobless claims at 07:30 and pending home sales at 09:00 ct to add to the mix. I'm going to monitor the first hour's trade before getting involved today and be patient for levels.