ES review & plan
Friday saw a move down to the exact low of Wednesday's RTH session and reversed, a sign more that short term traders were in control. Going into the long weekend there was a push higher and a late break to settle above Thursday's open, together with the VPOC on the day. We saw no follow through on the downside early in the day as the risk going into this risk could be to the upside with the ECB QE announcement likely this Thursday. There has been a lot of discounting already in terms of European bond yields and the weakness of the currency, so it's possible we see an unwinding of that short term after the news.
Overnight the market has pushed higher, driven mainly by the European indices. The range is 2003.00-2026.50 against Friday's settlement of 2013.00.
The range formed over the past week or so has a value area high coinciding with the overnight high. It remains to be seen whether there is responsive selling back into value or not. Overnight inventory is long and we are currently set to gap open to the upside, so gap trading rules apply.
If there is acceptance above the overnight high, 2026-2029 is a high volume area on the composite profile which, if cleared, should pave the way for a fast rally through last Tuesday's thin distribution and towards it's VPOC at 2048.00