ES review & plan

Further weakness yesterday made new lows for the month and value is shifting lower. Volatility has risen significantly in the wake of a full on currency crisis in Russia and collapsing oil price. The 6.5% rate rise over night in Russia has done nothing to stop the Ruble's collapse and currently is at 80 to the dollar and the worst since the crisis in '98 which led to the country defaulting on it's debt.

Overnight ES futures are weak again, with crude dropping to $54 and weak Chinese PMI. Bond futures and gold have surged and the dollar index is down sharply. Risk off is in full effect and this could get nasty. With quadruple witching on Friday expect wild swings and a thinner order book. Liquidity can disappear very quickly with an increase in volatility, as we saw spectacularly in the treasury market in October.

The overnight range as at 06:50 ct is 1961.50 - 1994.00. Prior settlement was 1983.25 and the low was 1974.50 which are the first major references for the open. Given the geopolitical news and risk off nature, we could gap lower and breakaway lower. The initial target area for consolidation would be around the composite HVN at 1957.00. There is a swing low at 1952.25 then 1937.50.

The FOMC begin their 2 day meeting today and housing starts are due at 07:30 ct.