ES review & plan
The early attempt to push into Monday's range failed and once the overnight low and single prints from Tuesday were tested and failed, continued downside pressure took out the prior low. There was a heavy sell imbalance on the close. Volume was 2.3m contracts and today is the start of rollover into the March contract (-7 points difference).
This was a double distribution trend day and the different distributions are to be treated as separate auctions. The overnight range is 2023.75-2036.25, which matches the lower distribution. Failure to break the overnight high would increase the odds of a further test lower or at least balancing within this area. A move above the overnight high has initial resistance at the top of the spike at 2040.