ES review & plan
Friday's pre-market trade had ramped higher on dovish talk from Draghi and the China interest rate cut, leaving the overnight market very long.
On opening, the overnight high was briefly breached and failed. A correction to overnight inventory ensued. The measured move at 2069.25 had been hit. One timeframing lower proceeded until lunchtime, making a low just above the prior range and failing to fill the gap. The low was a couple of ticks short of 50% for the range from Thursday's low to Friday's high.
Value was clearly higher on the day, but there had been a strong effort to counter the full overnight move. Volume was 1.6m contracts and 3.9bn shares traded on NYSE - not high considering the range on the day and overnight news.
This is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday and a shortened day on Friday. Here is the week's economic calendar.
Absence of any major economic news leaves me to envisage the most likely possible scenarios:
1. Have an inside day to Friday, trading within prior value.
2. There is a push lower to close the gap and naked VPOC/POC from last Thursday followed by a rally back into Friday's value.
3. There is support at Friday's POC/VPOC area and a push higher to challenge the highs.
The overnight market at at 05:00 ct has traded a narrow range between 2060.75 (Friday's VPOC) and 2067.50.