Friday's open at 2012.50 left an 18.25 point gap above the prior day's high. There was on opening drive lower to 2002.25, which was a tick below a nvpoc from Sep 19th. The odds of closing such a large gap on the same day were low. Once the initial balance range had been established, trading remained contained within it, giving scalpers the most opportunities. The overnight high leaves a new all time high, which has yet to be touched in the pit session. The odds for that remaining the case are low.

The rally of the past 2 weeks has been 200 points at Friday's peak and has left 3 gaps in regular trading hours. These are signs of excess on the imbalance moves higher but nevertheless leaves weak structure. The initial target for shorts is the gap close and vpoc from Thursday. The initial target for longs is the overnight high from Friday.

There are high and low volume node profile levels visible to lean on, as well as prior balance areas for support on the most recent move up:

With the upside now as new territory, a bullish stampede could push prices higher than expected as large investment money chases the moves. There are some measured targets for range extensions which I'll monitor for any responsive selling action should it get there:

The natural expectation after such a big run is to let our thoughts take over and short the first opportunity because of the number of days it has risen in a row. However, it's important to trade what we see not what we think and use market generated information to stop our cognitive biases taking over. That being said, if sellers get the upper hand, weak longs will liquidate and we could retrace very quickly to prior high volume support areas. A correction after the speed and magnitude of the rally would put an advance on a firmer footing in my view.

Overnight has been extremely quiet and balanced with a range of 2007.00 - 2012.50 on volume of 135k at 07:30cst

ES Recap & Preparation

ES Review & Plan

ES Recap & Preparation